Hunault • Spontaneous Live Birth (Time Horizon)

Inputs

Woman's age (years)

AGE1/AGE2 split at 31 years as in the Hunault appendix.

Duration of subfertility (years)

Time from stopping contraception to intake.

% motile sperm

Time horizon (months)

Plot will be drawn from 0 → selected months.

Primary subfertility

Yes (no previous pregnancy)

Tertiary-care couple

Yes (referred by a gynaecologist)

Model variant

Use 2-sample model with PCT (Snick–Eimers)

Weibull shape k (default 0.8)

k<1 = faster early, slower later. Calibrated so baseline S0(12)=0.181.

Plot

Method note. This tool implements the prognostic index (PI) from Hunault et al. (Human Reproduction, 2004; doi:10.1093/humrep/deh365). The original publication reports predictions for a 12-month horizon using a Cox model and provides baseline survival at 12 months (S0(12)=0.181). To display month-by-month curves, we derive S0(t) using a calibrated Weibull baseline with adjustable k. Short-horizon estimates are therefore derived from this baseline-shape assumption (not validated as a separate endpoint in the original study).

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